Abstract:

The global COVID-19 pandemic has shocked the world. Since the virus gave rise to health problems and often ended in deaths, the count of the contagion and the deceased has been an open issue. Such statistics are vital for every nation and even every city or district and suburb as these numbers decide the level of intervention and the subsequent reduction of its given spread. Worldwide data show a mortality rate of around two percent prior to successful vaccination campaigns. However, Ecuador’s statistical data indicate an abnormal amount of excess mortality, which is officially denied in each of the studied countries. These numbers have been projected on a monthly basis and exceed up to 300% of the official COVID-19 deaths. In particular, the average mortality rate in Ecuador, prior to and close to the pandemic, has been about 6083.4±234.6, while in the worst month during the sanitary crisis, deaths piled up to 21,000 people, and only 1180 were recognized as deceased by COVID-19. The reasons are widespread but based on an insufficient financed health sector, political incompetence, lack of leadership, and a long-lasting economic crisis. Therefore, premature endings of confinements or lockdowns have contributed to an accelerated contagion and seem to even counteract the vaccination phase, in middle 2021, shortly before excess mortality ceased completely.

Keywords: COVID-19; excess mortality; health crisis; data analysis; Ecuador